Is 2026 a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home on the Eastside? The Housing Market Math You Should Know

Why looking beyond interest rates and asking prices could reveal opportunities for buyers and sellers in Sammamish, Bellevue, Issaquah, and across the Eastside.

If you're trying to decide whether now is the right time to buy, sell, or simply stay where you are, you're probably feeling the weight of today's economic uncertainty.

Between interest rates, inflation, economic headlines, and concerns about the direction of the housing market, it's easy to become paralyzed by the noise.

Most buyers and sellers focus on two numbers: today's mortgage rates and the asking prices they see on Redfin. But looking at those numbers independently can lead to some expensive mistakes.

The reality is that real estate decisions should be evaluated through a much broader financial lens.

If you're considering selling a condo to purchase a larger home, upgrading from a starter home, or holding onto your current property as a rental while purchasing another, the smartest approach is to look at the relationship between the properties, your equity, borrowing costs, and long-term financial goals.

I'm Scott Petrich, a Redfin Principal Agent specializing in the Eastside housing market. With more than a decade of experience, nearly $450 million in career sales, and over 445 successfully closed transactions, I've seen how dramatically market conditions can change.

My approach is to help buyers and sellers understand the numbers, identify opportunities, and make decisions based on their individual financial objectives.

Let's use Sammamish's 98075 ZIP code as an example to explore how to approach today's market strategically.

1. The Sell-and-Buy Strategy: Understanding the Opportunity in the Spread

One of the biggest psychological obstacles for move-up buyers is something economists call anchoring bias.

If you purchased a condo or starter home several years ago, you probably remember what it was worth during the peak of the market. If prices have softened since then, accepting a lower selling price can feel like taking a financial loss.

But there's another side to that equation that homeowners frequently overlook.

If the broader housing market has declined, the larger home you're looking to purchase may have declined as well.

In other words, you might be selling one property at a discount while purchasing another property at an even greater discount.

Consider this simplified example:

A hypothetical move-up buyer:

• Starter home previous peak valuation: $1,350,000.

• Current estimated selling price: $1,200,000.

• Larger replacement home previous valuation: $2,100,000.

• Current purchase opportunity: $1,800,000.

The homeowner is potentially selling $150,000 below the previous peak valuation but purchasing the replacement property at a $300,000 reduction.

The difference between those two price movements creates a $150,000 improvement in the relative purchase spread.

This doesn't automatically mean the homeowner comes out ahead. Selling expenses, purchase costs, financing, taxes, and the actual condition and appreciation potential of both properties must be considered.

However, it illustrates an important concept:

You don't necessarily need to sell at the top of the market to make a great purchase in the same market.

The goal isn't to perfectly time two transactions. It's to understand the relationship between the asset you're selling and the asset you're buying.

2. The Rent-and-Buy Strategy: When Holding Your Current Home Makes Sense

What if you own a property with a historically low mortgage rate? Perhaps you're sitting on a 3% mortgage and don't particularly want to give it up.

Or maybe you're simply unwilling to sell your property below its previous peak valuation.

In certain situations, keeping your current home as a rental while purchasing another property can be worth exploring.

The strategy is relatively straightforward:

1. Retain ownership of your current property.

2. Rent it to a qualified tenant.

3. Allow rental income to help offset the existing mortgage and operating expenses.

4. Purchase your next home while maintaining ownership of the original property.

5. Potentially benefit from long-term appreciation and mortgage principal reduction on both properties.

The attraction is that you're retaining an asset with an existing financing advantage while gaining exposure to another property.

However, this strategy deserves a much closer financial examination before moving forward.

There are several obstacles that can make holding two properties difficult:

• Debt-to-income ratios: Your lender may not allow you to qualify for another mortgage without sufficient documented rental income.

• HOA restrictions: Some condominium and planned communities have rental caps or restrictions.

• Cash flow: Rental income needs to cover more than just the mortgage. Taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancies, management, and capital expenditures all matter.

• Landlord responsibilities: Managing tenants, repairs, and unexpected expenses requires time and additional liability.

• Liquidity: Holding two properties can tie up substantial capital and reduce your financial flexibility.

A low mortgage rate alone doesn't make a property a good investment.

You need to understand the property's actual rental economics, equity position, expected maintenance costs, and potential long-term return.

Sometimes retaining a property is an excellent wealth-building decision. Other times, selling and reallocating that equity into your next home is the smarter move.

The numbers should determine the strategy, not the emotional attachment to a previous purchase price or mortgage rate.

3. The Metric Most Buyers Overlook: Median Prices Versus Mortgage Rates

When you walk into an open house, the asking price is simply the seller's starting point.

It doesn't tell you whether the property represents a good value, how much negotiating room exists, or whether the monthly payment makes financial sense.

To understand the broader market, you need to examine both home prices and borrowing costs.

Let's look at the major market swings in Sammamish's 98075 ZIP code.

Market phase	Median sale price	Mortgage rate environment
March–April 2022 peak	$2.2M+	Approximately 3.2%–4.5%
Late 2022–early 2023 correction	Approximately $1.46M	Rapidly rising rates
Late 2026 market	Approximately $1.8M	Approximately 6.5%–7.2%

Market figures are based on the working estimates used in this analysis. Monthly median prices are influenced by the mix of homes sold, and mortgage rates fluctuate over time. See the research resources below for underlying data.

The takeaway is that Sammamish experienced a significant price correction as borrowing costs increased, followed by a recovery from the market low.

Even with higher mortgage rates, today's purchase prices may present opportunities relative to the 2022 peak.

But here's where things get interesting.

A lower purchase price doesn't automatically mean a lower monthly payment.

Consider a $1.7 million purchase with 20% down:

• Purchase price: $1,700,000.

• Down payment: $340,000.

• Mortgage amount: $1,360,000.

• At 3.5% interest: approximately $6,103 per month in principal and interest.

• At 6.75% interest: approximately $8,819 per month in principal and interest.

That is a difference of approximately $2,716 per month.

These figures demonstrate why buyers need to evaluate both purchase price and financing costs. Property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and other expenses are additional.

The opportunity today isn't simply that homes are cheaper than they were in 2022. It's that buyers may have more negotiating leverage, more inventory to evaluate, and opportunities to structure transactions that weren't readily available during the competitive market.

And while refinancing may become an option if interest rates decline, it is never guaranteed. Buyers should be comfortable with the payment they are committing to today.

4. The Cost of Waiting: What Happens If Interest Rates Drop?

One of the most common things I hear from buyers is:

"I'm going to wait until interest rates come down."

It's a reasonable thought. Lower interest rates can improve affordability and increase purchasing power.

However, there is another side to the equation that deserves consideration.

When mortgage rates decline, more buyers may reenter the market. That can increase competition, reduce negotiating leverage, and put upward pressure on home prices.

Imagine a scenario where a buyer waits for mortgage rates to decline from 6.75% to 5.75%.

That buyer may enjoy a lower monthly payment. But what happens if increased competition pushes the purchase price higher?

The buyer could end up paying more for the same property, potentially offsetting some of the savings from the lower interest rate.

This is why I encourage buyers to evaluate the entire transaction rather than trying to predict the perfect time to enter the market.

Sometimes the opportunity is negotiating a lower purchase price today, securing seller-paid closing costs, or negotiating a mortgage-rate buydown.

Other times, waiting is absolutely the right decision.

The important thing is understanding the cost of each option.

5. Why ZIP-Code Data and Automated Home Valuations Can Be Misleading

You don't need a real estate license to understand your local housing market.

In fact, I encourage buyers and sellers to educate themselves and use publicly available data to establish a baseline.

Redfin's 98075 Housing Market Insights is a useful starting point for understanding local sales activity.

Explore the Sammamish 98075 Housing Market

However, there is a significant difference between understanding a ZIP code and accurately evaluating an individual property.

Two homes in the same neighborhood can have dramatically different values based on:

• Lot size, usability, and privacy.

• School boundaries and neighborhood location.

• Floor plan, functionality, and natural light.

• Renovations, condition, and deferred maintenance.

• Views, traffic exposure, and surrounding properties.

• Competing inventory and recent comparable sales.

Automated valuation models are useful for establishing a general reference point, but they cannot reliably account for every property-specific variable.

They also don't necessarily capture the latest negotiating conditions, seller motivation, inspection findings, or competing offers.

A home that appears overpriced based on a ZIP-code median might actually represent an excellent opportunity when compared with truly similar properties.

Likewise, a property that appears attractively priced online may have underlying issues that aren't immediately apparent.

This is where detailed, property-specific market analysis becomes important.

6. The Eastside Is Not One Housing Market

Another mistake I see buyers make is treating the entire Eastside as one market.

Sammamish, Issaquah, Bellevue, Redmond, and Kirkland each have different housing characteristics, buyer demographics, inventory patterns, and price dynamics.

Even within a single city, individual neighborhoods can behave very differently.

A property in Sammamish's 98075 ZIP code may attract a completely different buyer than a comparable-priced property in Issaquah or Redmond.

The same applies to Bellevue's luxury market, where location, school boundaries, lot characteristics, and proximity to employment centers can have a significant impact on demand.

This is why I believe the most valuable market information is often found below the city and ZIP-code level.

You need to understand what's happening with the specific type of property you're considering, who the competing buyers are, how long comparable homes are taking to sell, and where sellers are becoming more flexible.

That information can help buyers identify opportunities and sellers position their homes more competitively.

7. Research Your Own Neighborhood: Four Resources Worth Bookmarking

You don't have to live in Sammamish to use the strategies discussed in this article. The same principles apply whether you're researching a home in Bellevue, Issaquah, Redmond, Kirkland, Snoqualmie, or anywhere else in the country.

I encourage homeowners to explore the underlying data themselves. Here are four resources I recommend.

1. Redfin Data Center — Housing Market Trends

Explore Redfin's Data Center

A great starting point for researching housing trends. Explore median sale prices, inventory, days on market, pending sales, price reductions, and the balance between buyers and sellers.

You can also explore individual ZIP-code housing insights through Redfin's housing market pages.

2. Freddie Mac — Historical Mortgage Rates

Explore Freddie Mac's Mortgage Market Survey

Compare historical 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates. This is particularly useful when evaluating how borrowing costs have changed over different housing cycles.

3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

Explore FRED Economic Data

FRED provides access to historical mortgage rates, inflation indicators, employment data, and broader economic trends. It's an excellent resource for understanding the economic forces influencing housing affordability.

4. U.S. Census Bureau — Housing Data

Explore Census Housing Statistics

Research homeownership, rental costs, housing characteristics, and demographic trends. This can help provide additional context when evaluating a particular market or community.

Six Data Points to Research Before Making Your Next Move

When researching your own neighborhood, I recommend focusing on these six indicators:

1. Median Sale Price

Look at the median sale price in your ZIP code over the past 12–24 months. Compare the same months year over year to help account for seasonal fluctuations.

2. Days on Market

How long are comparable homes taking to sell? Increasing days on market can indicate that buyers have more time and negotiating leverage.

3. Active Inventory

How many competing properties are currently available? More inventory can give buyers additional choices and potentially improve negotiating opportunities.

4. Price Reductions

Track how many sellers are reducing their asking prices. This can provide insight into initial pricing expectations versus what buyers are actually willing to pay.

5. Sale-to-List Price Ratio

Are homes selling above, at, or below their original asking prices? This helps identify how aggressively buyers are negotiating.

6. Mortgage Rate Trends

Compare current borrowing costs with historical mortgage rates. Consider how changes in financing affect your monthly payment and purchasing power.

An important tip: Don't rely on one month's median price or compare completely different types of properties. Look at similar homes, consistent time periods, and multiple indicators before drawing conclusions.

The objective isn't to become a full-time market analyst. It's to understand enough about your local market to ask better questions and make more informed decisions.

8. Do What Lets You Sleep at Night

While the financial math of buying and selling in a shifting market can look compelling on a spreadsheet, real estate is ultimately about your life, not just your investment portfolio.

Every homeowner needs to ask themselves an important question:

Does making this move actually improve my financial position and quality of life?

You should never feel pressured to buy or sell simply because the market appears favorable.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with staying put, enjoying your current home, and waiting for the right opportunity.

If today's mortgage payments stretch your budget too thin, or you're simply not ready to move, staying where you are may be the best financial decision.

The goal of analyzing market data isn't to force a transaction. It's to remove some of the emotion and uncertainty, understand the available opportunities, and give you the information to make a confident decision.

Ready to Find Your Strategic Edge in the Eastside Housing Market?

Navigating today's housing market requires looking beyond national headlines and understanding the specific dynamics affecting the property you're buying or selling.

Whether you're looking for a move-up opportunity in Sammamish (98075), negotiating seller concessions and mortgage-rate buydowns in Bellevue, evaluating an off-market opportunity, or considering an investment property in Issaquah or Redmond, having a strategy matters.

My approach combines detailed market analysis, neighborhood-level knowledge, and strategic contract negotiation to help clients make informed decisions.

Want to know what's happening in your specific ZIP code?

Send me your ZIP code and whether you're considering buying, selling, or holding your current property. I'll help you understand the market conditions that matter to your decision, including recent comparable sales, competing inventory, pricing trends, and potential negotiating opportunities.

Let's look at the numbers before you make your next move.

Website: www.scottpetrichhomes.com

Direct: 425-777-0583

Email: Scott.Petrich@Redfin.com

About Scott Petrich | Redfin Principal Agent

Scott Petrich is a top-producing Eastside real estate specialist and Redfin Principal Agent with nearly $450 million in career sales volume and more than 445 successfully closed transactions.

Specializing in Sammamish, Issaquah, Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and Snoqualmie, Scott combines more than a decade of local market experience with a data-driven approach to pricing, marketing, and contract negotiation.

Recognized in the Redfin President's Club since 2017, Scott helps buyers and sellers navigate changing market conditions, protect their equity, and make strategic real estate decisions.

See what Scott's clients have to say:

Read Client Reviews, Explore Sales History & View Scott's Redfin Profile

Scott Petrich | Redfin Principal Agent

Direct: 425-777-0583

Email: Scott.Petrich@Redfin.com

Grateful for my wonderful clients helping me approach a half billion dollars in career sales.

Disclaimer: The examples provided are illustrative and are not financial, tax, legal, or mortgage advice. Individual results depend on property characteristics, financing terms, transaction costs, taxes, and market conditions. Consult qualified professionals before making financial or investment decisions.